They just don't know it yet. More evidence you can't have
a deadly epidemic AND an exploding population at the
same time.
Ergo, there is no AIDS epidemic in Africa. What there
IS, is the highest population growth in the world.
According to this study, they basically found that the likelihood
of pregnancy decreases as the disease advances, fertility
declines as the disease advances, spontaneous abortions
in crease as the disease advances (DUH!).
So how can they explain that Uganda was 30% or so HIV
positive, but went from a population of 12 million in 1980,
to a population of 23 million in the year 2000??
Oh and by the way, for "HIV" fill in "malaria".
Alex
Subject: Where have all the babies gone? HIV and fertility in Uganda
Where have all the babies gone? HIV and fertility in Uganda
Women with HIV tend to have fewer babies. Are they less likely to get
pregnant? Or do they have a greater risk of miscarriage or
stillbirth? Researchers at the UK Medical Research Council Programme
on AIDS in Uganda tried to answer these questions by following a
group of 191 women in the south-west of the country.
They offered routine clinic visits every three months to 92 HIV-
positive and 99 negative women over nearly 11 years. During this
time, there were 216 pregnancies in 104 women. Analysing data,
including HIV status and the incidence and outcomes of pregnancies,
the researchers report that:
40 percent of the HIV-positive women had died by the end of the
study.
The frequency of sexual intercourse decreases with advancing HIV
disease.
Overall, the odds of a woman with HIV being pregnant are around half
those for HIV-negative women.
The likelihood of pregnancy decreases as the disease worsens, whether
this is measured by clinical stage, CD4 count (the immune status of a
patient), time from becoming HIV-positive or time before an AIDS
diagnosis. There are very few pregnancies in the advanced stages of
the disease.
There were 183 live births, 21 spontaneous abortions and 12
stillbirths or early neonatal deaths. HIV-infected women have a
higher risk of foetal loss, even at the earliest stages of HIV
infection.
This study shows that fertility decreases from the earliest stage of
HIV infection, due to fewer pregnancies and increased foetal loss.
This information will help to predict numbers of orphans due to AIDS
and the rates of HIV infection in children. It also shows that the
estimation of general HIV rates from antenatal clinic (ANC) data is
not as straightforward as it seems. If HIV-positive women have lower
fertility, they are less likely to attend ANC, and so these data may
underestimate HIV rates in the general population. However, other
studies have shown that women with lower fertility are more likely to
become HIV-infected. Possible explanations include illness in their
partners, other sexually transmitted infections, or the cultural
pressure for women to have children in many African societies may
push them towards more risky behaviour, such as having extra sexual
partners.
Contributor(s): Amanda Ross
Source(s):
`HIV-1 disease progression and fertility: the incidence of recognized
pregnancy and pregnancy outcome in Uganda', AIDS 18: 799-804, by A.
Ross, et al, 2004
HINARI subscribers can access the full-text article here. More
information.
Funded by: UK Medical Research Council; UK Department for
International Development
id21 Research Highlight: 23 February 2005
Further Information:
Amanda Ross
Department of Public Health and Epidemiology
Swiss Tropical Institute
Socinstrasse 57
CH-4002 Basel
Switzerland
Tel: +41 61 284 81 12
Fax: +41 61 271 79 51
Email: amanda.ross
@unibas.ch
