- EXPLOSIVE SH#T!!!!
- Posted by Alex
Just browsing around, as you do, and I came across this piece of dynamite!!
Check it out, then search "elisa" or go to table II.
http://www.certi.org/CMA/newsletter/v03n01.pdf
This is data on testing the Italian armed forces. Get this.
Table II
HIV Screening in Military Blood Transfusion Centers
Number of dontations: 25,562
Number of blood donations ELISA positive: 32
Number of blood donations after confirmation test: 2
In other words, after performing a confirmation test
for the ELISA, only *2* of the 32 positive tests remained positive.
That is positive predictive value of 2/32 or 6 1/4%!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6.25%
In a country with very few other pathogens that could cause
a false positive result like in Africa (malaria, leprosy, tb, ddt, etc.).
Alex
- Posted by Nick Bennett
Dynamite? Not really - sounds about right to me, or at least I'm not
surprised. It's why ELISA isn't diagnostic on its own.
The false positive rate is still only 30/25562, or 0.1%, but I take your
point on predictive value. In countries with higher rates of HIV the rate
would probably get better.
Note the other take-home message - ELISA alone in this population had a
0.1% false-positive rate ;-)
Bennett
- Posted by GMCarter
On Tue, 26 Aug 2003 23:33:24 +0200, "Alex" <avdeelen.REMOF@wanadoo.nl>
wrote:
Gee, and there I though with that re line it was going to be an
article on cryptosporidiosis.
Certainly, that's what happens when a person has a suppressed immune
system related to HIV and gets this water-borne illness. Far worse
than people that don't. Even those that use drugs.
George M. Carter
