http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/inter...rtner=homepage

AIDS Blamed as South Africa's Death Rate Soars
By REUTERS

Published: February 18, 2005

Filed at 11:11 A.M. ET

PRETORIA, Feb 18 (Reuters) - South Africa's death toll soared by 57
percent in the five years to 2002, new figures on Friday showed,
underscoring how the country's AIDS epidemic is cutting a swathe
through its working-age population.

Releasing figures from a widely awaited national mortality study,
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said reported deaths leapt to
499,268 in 2002 from 318,287 in 1997.

The report looks likely to spark new debate over the extent of the
AIDS crisis in South Africa, where President Thabo Mbeki's government
is often accused by critics of both underplaying and underestimating
the crisis.

The study "provides indirect evidence that the HIV epidemic in South
Africa is raising the mortality levels of prime aged adults," Stats SA
head Pali Lehohla said in a statement.

AIDS is increasingly seen as a threat to South Africa's future, with
officials saying that up to 23 percent of its armed forces are
infected with HIV and key industries including mining hard hit by the
epidemic.

Stats SA said that among adults over 15, deaths increased by 62
percent between 1997 and 2002.

The report showed deaths increasing most rapidly for women and people
aged between 20 and 49 -- both regarded as groups most susceptible to
the AIDS virus, which affects an estimated one in nine of the
country's 45 million people.

"Death from AIDS of working age adults is a real and immediate
crisis," the opposition Democratic Alliance said in a statement
responding to the new numbers on Friday.

"Many of the adults who are dying, including nurses and teachers, are
critical to South Africa's future. Yet the government has no
comprehensive human resources plan in place to address this," the DA
statement said.

THREE MILLION DEATH CERTIFICATES

The Stats SA study was based on 3 million official death certificates
recorded over a five-year period. It said that on average 1,368 South
Africans died every day in 2002, compared with just 872 deaths a day
in 1997.

"It is in the 30 to 34 age group that we are seeing a very, very high
percentage of deaths being registered," said Liz Gavin, the agency's
director of population statistics. Stats SA said part of the increase
could be attributed to overall growth in South Africa's population --
up an estimated 10 percent over the period -- as well as a more
comprehensive death reporting system.

But experts agreed that hidden behind the numbers was a real and
escalating AIDS death toll.

"The report ... indicates an unabating HIV/AIDS epidemic," said David
Bourne, chief researcher at the University of Cape Town's School of
Public Health.

Officials said exact causes of death remained difficult to ascertain,
as in many cases common AIDS-related diseases such as tuberculosis,
influenza or pneumonia were officially recorded as responsible.

These three diseases are killing many more South Africans than before
as the AIDS virus spreads through the population.

Pneumonia was listed as responsible for 51,000 deaths in 2001 compared
with 22,000 in 1997, while the toll from influenza and pneumonia
jumped to 31,000 from 12,000 in the same period.

HIV, the subject of intense social stigma in South Africa where
publicly funded AIDS drug treatment became available only last year,
was directly blamed for only 9,000 deaths in 2001 against 6,000 four
years earlier.

AIDS activists have sought to press the South African government into
a more aggressive stance against the HIV/AIDS epidemic, saying that
both stigma and lack of publicly available treatment were hindering
the fight against the disease.

South Africa last year launched a public anti-retroviral drug
programme, but implementation remains slow with tens of thousands of
prospective patients still unable to access the life-saving
medication.

Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, speaking on Friday before
the Stats SA figures were released, said the government was doing its
best amid confusion about the extent of the disease and numbers of
people needing treatment.

"Give me a country that has precise figures. Everybody is working on
projections and we were working on projections too," she told
reporters in Cape Town.

"You really are working in the dark ... so you just give the medicines
hoping God will help us and be on our side."

Hear the spinning start.

The death certificate data SHOWS AIDS as a cause of death
in 2.0% to 2.6% of all deaths IN ANY GIVEN YEAR.

The highest number of AIDS deaths in any given year
was just under 10,000.

Alex


"GMCarter" <fiar@verizon.net> schreef in bericht news:h8lc11hlit6f4m21mqat19etb5qn61v79h@4ax.com...
a029b1432b68a&ei=5094&partner=homepage

** Its seems Reuters is writing a misrepresentation of the numbers.

George DeCarlo


From: David

I have downloaded the latest Stats SA report on mortality for
1997-2003. It is 744 kb. I will happily send the pdf on request. You
can also download it yourself at http://www.statssa.gov.za/

I have plotted deaths from all causes and compared it to previous data
from Stats SA. The mortality is a linear for 1997-2003, and no
different from what I had plotted previously. No sign of anything
unusual mortality.

Dave

In article <1108787340.911914.273090@c13g2000cwb.googlegroups .com>,
George DeCarlo <alexdn@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
From 1998 to 2002, tuberculosis deaths doubled, and deaths in the 30-34
year old age group almost doubled. But no sign of anything unusual.

--
David Canzi

"David Canzi -- non-mailable address" <dmcanzi@remulak.ads.uwaterloo.ca> schreef in bericht
news:cv6kk7$2ma$1@rumours.uwaterloo.ca...
Coverage of death reporting improved.
The population grew by a few million (40.6 million in 1996 to 44.8
million in 2001).
Lastly, tuberculosis is not an AIDS defining illness (unless of course,
you believe that ANY infection is an AIDS defining illness - which
means by implication that there are no specific AIDS defining illnesses).

Most importantly, the percentage of registered deaths attributed
to HIV/AIDS is EXTREMELY consistent. 2.0% to 2.6% of all
recorded deaths.

Check for the following data in Appendix E:

Human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] diseases (B20 - B24)
Year - number of deaths - (as a % of total registered deaths)

1997 6,234 (2.0%)
1998 7,266 (2.0)
1999 9,925 (2.6)
2000 10,926 (2.6)
2001 9,212 (2.0)
2002 10,425 (2.1)
2003 (----) (2.1)

The percentage of deaths attributed to HIV did not change
in any significant way at all. Even though the number did increase,
it increased from a very low base. From 6,234 to 10,425. This
is in a country of (now) 47,000,000.

Alex


The report is available online, at:
http://www.statssa.gov.za/Publicatio...t&PM=&PY=&PS=1

In article <4216e272$0$76030$abc4f4c3@news.wanadoo.nl>,
Alex <avdeelen.REMOFE@wanadoo.nl> wrote:
From 1997 to 2002, reported deaths increased 147% for the 30-34
age group, and only 23% for the 55-59 age group. The likelihood
of a death being reported is extremely sensitive to the age of the
deceased. But no sign of anything unusual.

age 1997 2002 ratio
--- ---- ---- -----
0-4 34779 48572 1.40
5-9 2970 4339 1.46
10-14 2746 3339 1.22
15-19 6257 8977 1.43
20-24 13574 21838 1.61
25-29 18227 41412 2.27
30-34 18903 46758 2.47
35-39 18733 43020 2.30
40-44 18086 36614 2.02
45-49 18530 31681 1.71
50-54 17495 29613 1.69
55-59 20543 25270 1.23
60-64 20467 28704 1.40
65-69 23501 26902 1.14
70-74 21352 29095 1.36
75-79 23525 23875 1.01
80-84 15388 23655 1.54
85-89 10881 12668 1.16
90+ 6759 10947 1.62

AIDS makes people more susceptible to TB. In the presence of an
AIDS epidemic hidden by under-reporting, we would expect to see
an otherwise unexplained increase in TB.

AIDS or no AIDS, a doubling of TB deaths in 4 years is remarkable.
Can you claim, as the person I was responding to did, that there is
"no sign of anything unusual" here?

--
David Canzi

"David Canzi -- non-mailable address" <dmcanzi@remulak.ads.uwaterloo.ca>
schreef in bericht news:cvajs2$p56$1@rumours.uwaterloo.ca...
First of all, all developing countries have a pyramid shaped demography.
The majority of the population is always under 25, while there are very
few old people.
The reason is that a lot of people who in the West would simply get
medical help, don't have the money to do so and simply die of what
are otherwise curable diseases. Cancer doesn't get caught early,
tb doesn't get caught, there are still a lot of people who die of malaria,
exposure to banned chemicals like DDT, etc.

This is true whether we are talking about South Africa, or Iran.
(See the graphs at the bottom of the page at
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=sf (South Africa)
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=ir (Iran) )

It is important to remember that this has nothing to do with AIDS.

It is. However, one should at all times consider the effect of improved
coverage.

The ANC had a big task in pulling together all the data (mortality and
otherwise) from the former "independent homelands" (Transkei, Kwazulu,
Kwakwa, etc.). They came to power in 1994, and I think the consensus
is that only the data from 1998 onwards is remotely representative for the
entire nation.

Also, it is very well possible, that with the falling away of pass laws and
restrictions in internal migration, increased urbanisation would have led
to better coverage in later years. It would be more difficult to keep good
records in South Africa's remote countryside, than in the cities.

There is a high number of TB cases (the leading cause of death
in 2002). However, when is TB just TB? Could it also be a sign
of a deteriorating quality of life - poverty? Increased close living
quarters in the cities?

The point is, that even if you add up all cases of HIV (10,425 in
2002) and all the TB cases (59,951 in the same year), you still
don't get anywhere near the number of AIDS deaths that are
projected for South Africa by the WHO/UNAIDS (370,000 in 2003).

Alex

In article <42191ceb$0$72182$b83b6cc0@news.wanadoo.nl>,
Alex <avdeelen.REMOFE@wanadoo.nl> wrote:
Irrelevant.

The age distribution of the population and improvements in the
completeness of death reporting cannot account for why, in 5 years,
reported deaths went up 147% for the 30-34 age range, but only 23%
for the 55-59 age range. Nor can they account for why, in 4 years,
reported TB deaths went up 110% while ischaemic heart disease went
up only 15%.

Reported Cause of Death 1998 2002 %increase
----------------------- ---- ---- ---------
Tuberculosis 28487 59951 110%
Ischaemic heart diseases 10687 12303 15%

You would be better off simply admitting that these phenomena are
mysterious to you, instead of trying to explain them.

--
David Canzi

"David Canzi -- non-mailable address" <dmcanzi@remulak.ads.uwaterloo.ca> schreef in bericht
news:cvbtmp$p6g$1@rumours.uwaterloo.ca...
The percentage increases are irrelevant, if they increase from a very
low base to begin with.

The fact is, that if you add all HIV deaths and add all TB deaths,
you are still only at about 70,000.

Nowhere near the WHO/UNAIDS 370,000 number for the year 2003.

And besides, when all is said and done, this is what the data
are. 10,425 HIV deaths in the year 2002. It is up to your side
to prove that TB deaths are really HIV deaths.

Alex